MENA’s Generational Opportunity
Image from UNICEF
By Tanner Willis
Education is our greatest opportunity to give an irrevocable gift to the next generation – Ernie Fletcher
The MENA region will face an extreme demographic shift in the coming decades, unlike any other region in the world. It is estimated that young people, defined as the population of people between 0-24 years old, will increase by around 109% on average by 2030 compared to 2015. Such a monumental influx of youth brings great potential but also brings to light the immense challenges that will need to be addressed for the youthful MENA region to achieve its potential.
Challenges
Education System
The MENA region will face a significant – approximately 23% -- increase in the number of school-aged youth in its population by 2030 compared to 2023. This increase of around 25 million students will bring a multitude of challenges and adjustments that will require the region to address structural issues within its education system. Most MENA schools operate within a centralized system, which means that their funding, accountability, and curriculum are established by the government. On average, governments in the MENA region spend around 15% of their national budget on education, but 90% of that relatively small budget funds teacher salaries; which leaves very little room for new books, equipment, and other school supplies. Due to the lack of new materials and resources, schools in the region often foster a learning environment that is outdated. Even current youth themselves have expressed their concern.
This is a graph created by the Arab Youth Survey that shows how young Arabs feel about the quality of their education for the past several years.
A lack of confidence in the quality of their education can deter students from learning and may prompt students to find other avenues to do so. Extremist groups have been known to offer education, housing, and employment to recruit young people to their groups. Unfortunately, these groups have been successful in recruiting due to the lack of quality education and the frail relationship between education and the job market.
Unemployment
Youth Unemployment in the MENA region is currently the highest in the world. As of 2022, the region’s average youth unemployment rate is approximately 25%, and female youth unemployment is almost double at 42.7% as of 2021. Like the lack of quality education, the lack of employment opportunities leads an increased percentage of youth to seek dangerous routes to provide financial stability for themselves and their families.
There is a large discrepancy between the skills needed for jobs and those being taught. Families in areas with higher rates of poverty often have very young children not of legal working age to join the workforce to fill the gaps the family needs. For example, since 2007 child labor has doubled to around 70,000 children in the workforce in Jordan and approximately 180,000 in Lebanon.
It is estimated that by 2030, the MENA region will also have around 39 million new available workers–a 27% increase in the labor force compared to 2023. The MENA region will need to provide at least 2.6 million jobs a year to keep pace with the growing workforce. However, with technologies advancing and more and more jobs becoming automated, many jobs have been cut and many professions that will exist by 2030 have not yet been created. This skill gap is a prominent issue in the region with tangible consequences: Saudi Arabia could lose approximately $50 billion in output by 2030 while the UAE could lose up to $200 billion.
Gender Gap
Gender disparities exist all around the world and the MENA region is no exception. Girls are more likely than boys to never attend school, and if they do, those that are high achieving may be more likely to be outcasted by friends, family members, and their community. In extreme cases, girls who are independent in their beliefs and educational desires have even encountered honor killings.
When the COVID-19 pandemic shut businesses down globally, several companies provided virtual learning opportunities for youth. Companies such as Batelco in Bahrain, Vodafone in Egypt, Asiacell, and Zain partnered with the United Nations Children’s Fund in Jordan to provide virtual learning opportunities. While this access was meant for everyone, women were 12% less likely to use the internet than men and therefore had less access to continued learning amid the virtual pandemic world.
Child marriage is also another major contributor to the gendered education gap in the region.. Currently, one in five girls in the MENA region is married before the age of 18. In areas of conflict, this number is typically even higher. Generally upon marriage, men and women view women’s role in the household as caregivers to the family; but if the girl is 18 years or younger, she will miss out on vital years of skill learning, reading comprehension, and other necessary life and educational skills.
Political and Social Instability
The 2009 Arab Youth Survey stated that 92% of youth felt that living in a democratic country was their most important priority. Today, 82% of youth feel that stability is more important than establishing a democratic country. The MENA region has been greatly impacted by conflict; around 57% of the world’s refugees live in the region and approximately 68% of the world’s conflict-related deaths happen here. This leaves the region’s youth in a very brittle living environment, as around 37% of them live directly in conflict-affected states. Certainly, being surrounded by violence impacts the home and school life of youth throughout the region during formative adolescent years, as 25% of kids between ages 13 and 15 reports being bullied in school.
Solutions
Working with state and non-state actors is the only way for the MENA region to capture the opportunity that lies ahead for the region’s youth. Both state and non-state entities should have their own specific goals – some of which they can achieve independently and others that will require them to work together. Below is a list of goals that should be achieved by 2030 to ensure the youth have a greater opportunity to gain a quality education and be successful citizen in the labor workforce.
Private Sector
Donate and invest further in the community and culture
Work with governments to create more opportunities for growth and learning
Establish career development centers
Invest in connecting rural areas
Create opportunities only for women
Governments
Outlaw marriage below the age of 18
Outlaw any form of child labor and adopt stricter child labor laws
Invest more in education equipment and amenities
Allow decentralized schools
Create further partnerships with private companies for digital and other work skills
Lift bans on virtual services that can help provide education opportunities to the youth and women in disinvested areas
Give tax incentives to companies that invest in education for women and youth
In closing, education is the greatest opportunity that can be given, and the MENA region is about to embark on a major demographic change that will require them to prioritize and evolve their education system. This historical transition and the potential that comes with it will be prosperous for the region and generations to come if state and non-state actors take action to address these upcoming challenges.